Raw data: http://www.nedprod.com/studystuff/SSDsVsHardDrives.xlsx
You will note that I have stopped collecting prices for Optane drives – historical inventory for them has been sold, and you can’t really get them new anymore. Nor is there any close substitute. I’ll keep the historical data on the graph for now in case somebody does launch new storage with affordably priced non-volatile memory based storage. It’s a real shame how Optane went, had Intel not messed it up so badly, it should have replaced flash for storage.
This year is a normal looking year – spinning rust storage has become quite a bit cheaper, while flash storage has become quite a bit more expensive. It is, however, anything but a normal year because this year’s prices include the effects of the 10% import tariff currently being applied within the United States.
I ummed and awed about whether to try removing the effects of those taxes to keep this year’s figures comparable to previous years. But then this graph is in inflation adjusted US dollars, so we are by definition heavily tied into US economic specifics in any case. And they now have an import tariff making electronics more expensive. So I decided to not attempt to adjust anything. This graph is for the US economy and everything about that economy in each year.
It turns out SSDs are almost exactly 9% more expensive than last year. If you include inflation, it is 7.5% in real terms. Not quite the 10% tariff tax, but undoubtedly a fair price increase.
Hard drives, on the other hand are 28% cheaper including the tariff and excluding inflation. If you include those, they’re more like 40% cheaper than last year, which is getting towards half price. That’s an enormous price decrease in a single year, and most of it I think can be explained by a huge slump in demand for hard drives.
This time two years ago I predicted a recession would cause storage prices to tumble. Here looks like that recession, but so far it hasn’t appeared in the wider US economy, though it has in the wider European and Asian economies.
As regular readers here will remember, I recently picked up a factory recertified 28Tb hard drive recently for a dedicated AI inferencing machine for the site’s security cameras. I got that drive delivered for €400. That might seem a lot, but minus sales taxes (23%) and delivery (maybe €30) that 28Tb enterprise hard drive cost about €300. That same drive cost nearer a grand after taxes this time last year. It’s madness just how much hard drive prices have fallen in a single year. I can’t remember anything like it in recent memory.
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